THE TRUTH ABOUT MAN-MADE (ANTHROPOGENIC) GLOBAL WARMING (ALSO CALLED "AGW")

Introduction

Inexpensive, reliable, and plentiful energy is the foundation of any successful modern economy. Yet in Australia, per Figure 1, since the large-scale introduction of wind and solar power, electricity prices have risen almost six times faster than the Consumer Price Index.

This extraordinary increase in the cost of electricity is mainly the result of:

• Per Figure 2, the injection of intermittent power into an electricity grid driving baseload generators into diseconomy. The reason for this is that, without adequate storage which is, in itself, very expensive, consumers must pay for two generation systems; one based on wind and solar generators, the other based on gas and coal.
• Wind and solar generation systems require vast tracts of land and are dispersed. This requires an enormous network of wires to transport the electricity to where it will be consumed.
• Consumers and taxpayers are subsidising the introduction and operation of renewables equipment and grid modifications.

All of the above is causing electricity generation to be inefficient. Worse still, a significant portion of the money is going to the Chinese Communist Party, the main supplier of renewables hardware.

The Four False Premises Driving Australia's Electricity Price Disaster

Australian governments have based their entire energy and economic strategy on four false premises:

1. The rising concentration of atmospheric CO₂ is primarily the result of human emissions.
2. This extra CO₂ will cause dangerous global warming that threatens life on Earth.
3. The only way to reduce emissions is to replace reliable, low cost, abundant, coal, gas, and nuclear power with wind and solar.
4. Renewable energy will eventually be cheaper and more reliable than traditional sources.

All four claims are demonstrably false.

This webpage presents the scientific evidence — much of it from raw, unadjusted data — that the Earth is cooling, not warming, that CO₂ has no meaningful effect on global temperature, that sea levels are not accelerating, and that extreme weather events are not becoming worse. In fact, the modest increase in CO₂ is greening the planet and improving crop yields.

The real driver of climate is the Sun, and we are entering a Grand Solar Minimum — a period of reduced solar activity that historically brings cooler temperatures.

Far from saving the planet, the current rush to net zero is imposing enormous economic costs, damaging energy reliability, and diverting resources from genuine environmental and humanitarian needs — all based on flawed science and manipulated data.

This page lays out the evidence so you can judge for yourself.

It's Cooling, Not Warming

Mankind should be more concerned about the coming global cooling than global warming. A sustained cooling trend could bring long-term drought in the Southern Hemisphere, global crop failure, widespread famine, mass migration, and serious threats to Western civilisation.

For the past 10,000 years the Earth has been in a long-term cooling trend, with temperatures fluctuating but generally declining. Recent modest warming is minor when viewed in this broader context.

In 1961 there was a strong scientific consensus that the Earth was cooling. Raw, unadjusted temperature data from independent networks around the world confirms this long-term cooling trend continues.

The Northern Ice Cap that refuses to disappear:

In a similar vein, alarmists have frequently asserted that the Northern ice-caps and sea-ice generally is melting. (Not surprisingly, anyone who has tried to verify this in a kayak or ship has found themselves invariably stuck in the ice and in need of the services of a nuclear-powered ice-breaker!)

Raw unadjusted temperature records from around the world:

All these independent records show temperatures have been falling, in fits and starts, for over a century. The warmest period in the 20th century appears to have been around the 1930s.

Evidence of Data Manipulation and Fraud

One can only conclude from the raw data that there has been widespread fraud and/or incompetence by some government agencies. Historical temperature records have been systematically altered over many years — cooling the past and warming the present.

NASA and other agencies have repeatedly altered historical temperature records, cooling the past and warming the present.

I strongly recommend watching the following presentations by Tony Heller:

• “A Very High Probability Of Fraud By Government Climate Scientists”
• Fraud In The National Climate Assessment (Part 1)
• Fraud In The National Climate Assessment (Part 2)
• The Climate Industrial Complex

The Fraud of the 97% Consensus

The often-quoted claim that “97% of climate scientists agree” is based on highly flawed and manipulated surveys. For a clear explanation see:

• “97% Fraud!” by Lord Christopher Monckton
• The Stunning Statistical Fraud Behind The Global Warming Scare

In contrast, over 31,000 American scientists (including more than 9,000 with PhDs) have signed The Global Warming Petition Project stating there is no convincing evidence that human CO₂ emissions will cause catastrophic warming.

Sea Levels Are Not Rising at an Accelerating Rate

An examination of the historical record shows that the rate of sea level rise has actually been decelerating over the last 10,000 years. The present rate of rise is relatively constant and shows no sign of dangerous acceleration.

Figure 15 (based on data from Fleming et al. 1998, Fleming 2000, and Milne et al. 2005) clearly shows that sea level rise has plateaued and may even be in a gradual decline.

Long-term measurements at Fort Denison, Sydney:

Long-term tide gauge data from locations such as Fort Denison in Sydney confirm there is no unusual or accelerating rise in sea levels. Claims of imminent catastrophic flooding are not supported by the actual measured data.

CO₂ Has No Appreciable Effect on Atmospheric Temperature

The claim that increasing carbon dioxide will dangerously warm the atmosphere was rebutted more than a century ago by scientists such as Knut Ångström and later by Albert Einstein. Modern research confirms this view.

Nobel Laureate in Physics (2022) Dr. John Clauser has shown conclusively that clouds and water vapour are the dominant factors controlling atmospheric temperature. CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide have no appreciable effect at current concentrations.

The narrow bands of the infrared spectrum that CO₂ absorbs are already almost completely saturated by the existing concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Adding more CO₂ makes almost no difference to the greenhouse effect.

Ice core data clearly shows that changes in temperature precede changes in CO₂ levels, not the other way around. CO₂ is largely a result of warming oceans releasing dissolved gas, not the cause of warming.

Reducing human emissions of CO₂, methane or nitrous oxide will have no measurable effect on global temperature. Such policies are scientifically groundless and economically destructive.

Increased CO₂ is Beneficial

Far from being a pollutant, the modest rise in atmospheric CO₂ is one of the most beneficial changes occurring on the planet today.

This CO₂ fertilisation effect has contributed to record crop yields worldwide (See Figure 25.). Farmers are growing more food on less land, helping to feed a growing global population and reducing pressure on natural ecosystems.

The data is clear: not only is the current rise in CO₂ boosting agricultural productivity but it is also greening the planet. It is a net benefit to both nature and humanity.

Increased CO₂ also helps plants resist drought and heat stress by allowing them to partially close their stomata while still absorbing more carbon dioxide. This makes vegetation more resilient in drier climates. Per Figure 26. Satellite observations confirm that the Earth has become significantly greener over the past 30+ years. Higher CO₂ levels act as a powerful fertiliser for plants, improving photosynthesis, water-use efficiency, and growth — especially in arid regions.

Extreme Weather Events Have Not Worsened

Despite constant media claims, there is no increase in extreme weather events. In fact, many types of severe weather have declined.

Both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and tornadoes have been declining for decades. Claims of worsening extreme weather are not supported by the long-term data.

The Sun Determines Climate

As can be seen in Figure 29, the primary driver of Earth's climate is the Sun, not human CO₂ emissions. Variations in solar output, solar magnetic field strength, and cosmic ray intensity have a far greater influence on global temperatures than trace gases. Historical periods of low solar activity have consistently coincided with cooler global temperatures and harsher winters.

We Are Entering a Grand Solar Minimum

Figure 30 provides a graph of the solar cycles and how these are now gradually decreasing in their strength. Added to this waning of strength, when a Grand Solar Minimum occurs, there is also a significant reduction in the strength of the earth's magnetic field. The sign that this is happening is the sun going blank, ie, there are very few or even no sunspots on the surface of the sun as shown in Figure 31.

Solar activity cycles and their predicted decline:

These multiple indicators show the Sun is entering a prolonged period of low activity and this is what characterises a Grand Solar Minimum. The last major Grand Solar Minimum was the Maunder Minimum, which lasted approximately from 1645 to 1710. During this period, sunspot activity was extremely low for several decades, coinciding with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age

As a consequence of the reduction in strength of the Sun's magnetic field more cosmic rays enter the solar system and impact upon the earth's ionosphere. There is a strong relationship between cloudiness in the upper atmosphere and the impact of Cosmic Rays, as shown in Figure 32. This cloudiness reflects radiation from the sun and in combination with a waning sun, results in a much colder climate on earth. This mechanism combined with celestial movements, referred to as Milankovich Cycles, explains past climate changes far better than the CO₂ hypothesis.

Rather than worrying about global warming, society should prepare for the real possibility of global cooling during the coming Grand Solar Minimum.

Summary and Conclusions

The evidence presented in this webpage leads to several clear conclusions:

1. The Earth is cooling, not warming. Raw, unadjusted temperature records from independent networks around the world show a long-term cooling trend over the past century. Claims of dangerous warming rely on heavily adjusted data.
2. CO₂ has no appreciable effect on global atmospheric temperature at current concentrations. The greenhouse effect from CO₂ is already saturated. Water vapour and clouds dominate climate regulation.
3. Sea levels are not rising at an accelerating rate. Long-term tide gauge records show the rate of rise has been relatively constant or even decelerating over thousands of years.
4. Extreme weather events have not worsened and in many cases have declined. The data on cyclones, tornadoes and other extremes does not support alarmist claims.
5. Increased CO₂ is beneficial. It is greening the planet, improving crop yields, and helping vegetation resist drought and heat stress.
6. The Sun is the main driver of climate. We are entering a Grand Solar Minimum, which historically brings cooler conditions.

Australian governments have based their entire energy policy on four false premises that have driven electricity prices dramatically higher while delivering no measurable environmental benefit.

The result is clear: unreliable, expensive energy, damage to the economy, and money flowing overseas — all based on flawed science and manipulated data.

It is time to abandon the net-zero fantasy.

We should focus instead on affordable, reliable energy from coal, gas, and nuclear power, while preparing for the real challenge ahead: a likely period of global cooling during the coming Grand Solar Minimum.

The public is already feeling the pain in their electricity bills. It is time for honest, evidence-based policy — not ideology.

The Truth Matters